The National Weather Service tweaked their forecast river levels for the North Fork Flathead River. They now show it cresting just above flood stage for about a day at the Canadian border in the Tuesday-Wednesday time-frame. It’s hard to know what will happen at Polebridge — the gauge seems to be broken again — but the river should at least be pretty close to bank-full by mid-week.
Use the links on the “Flood Information” page to monitor the situation.
From today’s Daily Inter Lake . . .
The National Weather Service is holding to its forecast for higher temperatures this weekend and for Western Montana rivers and streams to rise sharply in the early part of next week.
Temperatures are expected to reach the lower 70s today and the upper 70s or lowers 80s by Sunday and Monday.
It will be “the warmest temperatures we’ve certainly seen this year,” meteorologist Bruce Bauck said. “It’s going to take a couple of days for this warm weather to start melting this snow … We should see the rivers starting to jump up pretty good in the early part of the week.”…
Across the Flathead River Basin, the snow water content at higher-elevation sites is 226 percent of normal….
Related news: Balmy weekend ahead for Glacier
Here’s a pretty good overview of the potential flood situation in our corner of the the U.S. from today’s Flathead Beacon . . .
The giant concrete dams of the Pacific Northwest are overflowing with water. Wyoming has deployed National Guard troops to pile up sandbags. A federal official compares the impending situation to a bucking bull ready to storm out of his chute.
States across the West are bracing for major flooding in the coming weeks once a record mountain snowpack starts melting and sending water gushing into rivers, streams and low-lying communities. The catalyst will be warmer temperatures forecast for the next week that could set off a rapid thaw.
Related article more specific to Montana: Schweitzer wants presidential disaster declaration
From an AP article posted to the Flathead Beacon . . .
Under pressure from Congress, the Obama administration is backing away from a plan to make millions of acres of undeveloped land in the West eligible for federal wilderness protection.
Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said in a memo Wednesday that his agency will not designate any of those public lands as “wild lands.” Instead Salazar said officials will work with members of Congress to develop recommendations for managing millions of acres of undeveloped land in the West. A copy of the memo was obtained by The Associated Press.
Salazar’s decision reverses an order issued in December to restore eligibility for wilderness protection to millions of acres of public lands. That policy overturned a Bush-era approach that opened some Western lands to commercial development.
Here’s another sign of spring: ticks.
From the Daily Inter Lake . . .
The Flathead City-County Health Department has issued a warning for people to take precautions to avoid tick bites.
Ticks become most active in spring and the early summer. South-facing slopes where snow melts first and wildlife winter ranges have the highest concentration of ticks.
Montana’s primary tick, the Rocky Mountain hard-bodied wood tick, carries Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever. A soft-bodied tick associated with relapsing fever recently has been found in Montana. Black-legged ticks that cause Lyme Disease are not known to occur in Montana.
Larry Wilson talks about the state of the river (tolerable so far) and the state of the North Fork Road (pretty bad, especially further north).
It may have been cold, wet, and nasty in the Flathead Valley this last week, but it was twice as nasty on the North Fork.
All in all, that has been a good thing for the river. Although the river is muddy and running nearly bank-full, there has been no flood damage. The threat of flooding is not over, merely postponed. There’s still a lot of snow in the high country, but I remain confident that we will not have major flooding unless we have heavy warm rain. The cold rain of the week is supposed to be replaced this week with warming temperatures and little rain. Hopefully, although the river will be high, we will have little damage.
The rain did have an affect on the North Fork Road…
(Many roads in the Flathead National Forest are in rough shape, too. Call one of the ranger stations for the latest conditions: Hungry Horse/Glacier View at 387-3800, Tally Lake at 758-5204, Swan Lake at 837-7500 and Spotted Bear at 758-5376.)
Here’s a timely reminder to be bear-aware from today’s Missoulian . . .
There have been a half-dozen encounters between grizzly bears and humans reported in Montana this month alone, a number experts attribute to a growing bear population stuck in the low country because of the deep snowpack.
Most of those encounters didn’t turn out well for the bears. Four times, the grizzlies were shot and killed.
It looks like the flooding roller coaster ride will continue, with river levels dropping for a short time and then rising again by the end of the week. This is reflected in the forecast river levels for the North Fork, which show a slight decrease for the next day or two followed by a steady rise to just at or above flood stage by the end of the week at Polebridge and the Canadian border.
From the Missoulian . . .
Rivers and streams in western Montana were in the recede mode Saturday as cool weather persisted and some expected precipitation failed to materialize…
With warmer weather and rain predicted by midweek, and a good stock of snow still waiting in the mountains, “we’ll probably have most of the rivers going right back up,” said Mark Loeffelbein of the National Weather Service in Missoula.
High altitude snowpack is still not melting and, in some places, still accumulating, keeping everyone in suspense. The Daily Inter Lake has a good summary of the situation . . .
Record precipitation was recorded in the Flathead Valley and at higher elevations Thursday, but cool weather is likely to halt snow melt and keep local rivers in check for now, according to the National Weather Service in Missoula.
The bad news is that record snowpack at higher elevations will have to melt eventually, creating a potential for serious flooding when higher temperatures arrive in June, Weather Service Meteorologist Bruce Bauck said.
(Note: if you want to keep an eye on high altitude snow depth, check out the “Flathead River Basin” section at the Montana SNOTEL data summary link on the Flood Information page.)
A tale of extreme hiking from a press release posted today on the Glacier Park web site . . .
Officials at Glacier National Park were contacted by the wife of an overdue hiker on Wednesday morning, May 25, 2011. Richard Layne, 59 years old and from Helena, was issued his backcountry permit on May 10 and according to his permit would be hiking in remote sections of Glacier’s North Fork and exiting on May 20. Layne and his wife had agreed that if he was not back by the 25th of May, she was to contact the park service.
Layne’s ambitious itinerary began at the Polebridge Ranger Station into Bowman Lake, from Bowman Lake to Brown’s Pass, through Hole-in-the-Wall and over Boulder Pass, exiting Kintla Lake and out the Inside North Fork Road to Big Prairie. Most of these areas are in winter conditions with extreme hazards.
Due to the impending change in weather expected on Thursday, rangers contracted Minute Man Aviation to fly Layne’s route. From the helicopter, rangers spotted tracks in the snow going over Boulder Pass that were consistent with human travel. In the afternoon, Layne was spotted near Upper Kintla Lake waving his red jacket at the helicopter. Rangers retrieved Layne and brought him out of the backcountry, uninjured but very tired.